气候变暖背景下河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害风险预估

为预估未来气候变暖背景下夏玉米花期高温灾害风险,根据河南省19个农业气象观测站夏玉米抽雄期常年观测资料和未来RCPs(representativeconcentrationpathways)气候变化情景数据,构建夏玉米花期高温风险评价指标,开展河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害时空特征及风险演变分析。其中RCPs气候情景数据包括基准气候条件(1951—2005年, RCP-rf)和未来(2006—2050年)RCP 4.5(中)、RCP 8.5(高)两种浓度路径数据。以抽雄普遍期及之后7d确定为夏玉米花期,并内插匹配气候情景格点数据。以花期最高气温≥32℃和≥35℃作为轻度和重度高温灾害发生阈值,根据轻、重度夏玉米花期高温发生频率和高温积害,建立风险评价指标并分级。结果表明, RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温发生频率在20.5%～81.0%(≥32℃)和3.9%～51.9%(≥35℃)。与基准条件相比,≥32℃高温发生频率增加9.1%(RCP4.5)和11.0%(RCP8.5),≥35℃高温发生频率增加8.7%(RCP4.5)和8.3%(RCP8.5)。RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温积害在48.5～200.9℃·d(≥32℃)和9.8～138.5℃·d(≥35℃)。与基准条件相比,≥32℃高温积害增加25.4℃·d (RCP 4.5)和25.6℃·d (RCP 8.5),≥35℃高温积害增加25.8℃·d (RCP 4.5)和31.4℃·d (RCP 8.5)。由综合风险分析可知, RCP-rf情景下夏玉米花期高温灾害高值风险区主要分布在新乡、郑州、许昌、漯河、周口及其以东以北的地区(商丘除外),约占夏玉米主栽区面积的30.1%;RCP4.5情景下高值风险区扩大至洛阳和南阳以东的大部分地区,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的63.4%; RCP 8.5情景下高值风险区面积进一步向西扩大,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的占76.3%。     

Estimating the level of disease risk and biosecurity on commercial poultry farms in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Aims: To collect baseline data on the contact risk pathways and biosecurity practices of commercial poultry farms in New Zealand, investigate the relationship between the farm-level disease contact risks and biosecurity practices, and identify important poultry health concerns of producers.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey of all registered New Zealand commercial poultry operations was conducted in 2016 collecting information on farm demographics, biosecurity practices, and contact risk pathways. Survey responses were used to generate an unweighted subjective disease risk score based on eight risk criteria and a subjective biosecurity score based on the frequency with which producers reported implementing seven biosecurity measures. Producer opinions towards poultry health issues were also determined.

Results: Responses to the survey response were obtained from 120/414 (29.0%) producers, including 57/157 (36.3%) broiler, 33/169 (19.5%) layer, 24/55 (44%) breeder, and 6/32 (19%) other poultry production types. Median disease risk scores differed between production types (p?<?0.001) and were lowest for breeder enterprises. The greatest risk for layer and broiler enterprises was from the potential movement of employees between sheds, and for breeder enterprises was the on- and off-farm movement of goods and services. Median biosecurity scores also differed between production types (p?<?0.001), and were highest for breeder and broiler enterprises. Across all sectors there was no statistical correlation between biosecurity scores and disease risk scores. Producers showed a high level of concern over effectively managing biosecurity measures.

Conclusions: The uptake of biosecurity measures in the commercial poultry farms surveyed was highly variable, with some having very low scores despite significant potential disease contact risks. This may be related to the low prevalence or absence of many important infectious poultry diseases in New Zealand leading farmers to believe there is a limited need to maintain good biosecurity as well as farmer uncertainty around the efficacy of different biosecurity measures. Further research is needed to understand barriers towards biosecurity adoption including evaluating the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity interventions.     

喀斯特地区贫困乡村景观格局及生态风险分析

为揭示喀斯特不同地貌乡村景观格局及生态风险的差异，以贵州省石门乡（喀斯特中山）、宗地镇（峰丛洼地）、周覃镇（低山丘陵）、掌布镇（峰丛峡谷）4种典型喀斯特地貌的贫困乡村为例，利用ArcGIS 10.1、Fragstats 4.2软件对乡村景观格局进行分析，并定量评价景观生态风险。结果表明，不同地貌乡镇的各斑块面积占比（PLAND）、斑块数量（NP）、斑块密度（PD）、斑块形状指数（LSI）存在较大差异。掌布镇景观水平上指标特征与石门乡相反，而宗地镇和周覃镇景观水平上指标特征介于掌布镇和石门乡之间。周覃镇与掌布镇景观生态风险低于石门乡以及宗地镇。石门乡中北部景观生态风险高于东部和西南部，与中北部以未利用地和建设用地景观为主、东部和西南部以灌草丛和林地景观为主有关。宗地镇中部比重较大的未利用地使其景观生态风险较高，而东部和西部比重较大的灌草丛使其景观生态风险较低。除西部地区外，周覃镇大部分地区耕地、林地和灌草丛的连片分布使得景观生态风险较低。中北部占主导地位的林地以及南部各地类的镶嵌分布，使掌布镇中北部景观生态风险明显低于南部。研究结果可为喀斯特地区乡村土地利用调控及生态风险管理提供科学依据。     

畜禽粪便中铜和锌污染现状及风险分析

为研究我国畜禽粪便中重金属Cu和Zn的现状及对土壤的污染风险,对数据库和课题组已有的数据进行整理,分析了我国畜禽粪便中Cu、Zn的现状,建立土壤中畜禽粪便重金属Cu和Zn的风险评估模型,预测施用畜禽粪便后土壤Cu、Zn的污染情况,并推算畜禽粪便Cu、Zn的阈值。研究发现,不同畜禽粪便中Cu、Zn含量差异较大,且Zn的含量均高于Cu含量。猪粪中Cu、Zn含量最高,中位值分别为406.9 mg·kg~(-1)和671.3 mg·kg~(-1),羊粪中Cu、Zn含量最低,中位值分别为28.7 mg·kg~(-1)和101.1 mg·kg~(-1)。施用猪粪的土壤中Cu和Zn的积累速率分别为12 080.0 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)和18 928.4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);家禽粪的影响其次,Cu和Zn的积累速率分别为1 396.4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)和7 978.1 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);牛粪和羊粪的污染风险较低。根据模型计算的阈值中,粪肥中Cu和Zn的阈值范围分别为80.8～2 256.6 mg·kg~(-1)和1 322.4～20 040.9 mg·kg~(-1);粪肥污染风险与阈值呈负相关,污染风险最高的猪粪,阈值最低,其Cu和Zn的阈值范围分别为80.8～163.2 mg·kg~(-1)和1 322.4～1 972.8 mg·kg~(-1)。     

土壤中毒死蜱及主要代谢产物的降解与生态风险

为探讨施用农药毒死蜱后土壤中毒死蜱及其主要降解产物3，5，6-三氯吡啶-2-酚（TCP）污染分布特征，评估农田土壤环境中毒死蜱及TCP的环境风险，以玉米、小麦和大豆3种作物农田为研究对象，开展旱地农田田间试验。通过对施用后不同时间农田土壤中毒死蜱浓度检测发现，土壤中毒死蜱均在前期消解较快，后期逐渐变缓。小麦、大豆、玉米种植土壤中毒死蜱的半衰期为7.86~24.84 d（均小于30 d），消解速率常数为0.027 9~0.088 2 d^-1。前期均表现为0~5 cm土壤中毒死蜱残留量最大，15~20 cm土壤中毒死蜱残留量最小，即随着深度的增加土壤中毒死蜱的残留量逐渐降低；随着时间的延长，0~10 cm土壤中毒死蜱残留量逐渐减少，10~20 cm土壤中毒死蜱残留量逐渐增加。TCP比母体毒死蜱更容易迁移，对环境的污染风险较高。随着毒死蜱施用剂量的增加，小麦、大豆、玉米3种作物种植土壤中毒死蜱及TCP的短期和长期生态风险均增大。超推荐剂量施用毒死蜱导致毒死蜱及TCP产生较高的短期和长期生态风险，TCP生态风险在3种作物农田中均达到了高风险等级。     

国内土壤环境污染防治进程及展望

综述以中国2005—2019年土壤污染防治进程的3个阶段为主线,总结土壤污染防治发展过程中管理模式、治理体系、管控要求、机构改革、立法支持等5个方面重要转变,分析国家和地方土壤环境保护标准、法律法规政策和主要土壤污染治理成效。针对国内土壤污染防治未来发展趋势,从完善土壤环境标准及管理制度、建设监测及预警大数据平台、加强土壤生态环境国际合作、持续推进土壤修复技术攻关和先行区经验推广等方面提出建议,以期为生态环境高水平保护和经济社会高质量发展提供参考。     

茶园土壤-茶树-茶叶-茶汤中镉转移规律及安全性评价

为论证镉污染土壤种植茶树的安全性与可行性,通过盆钵茶园试验研究了湖南9个主栽茶树品种在不同镉含量土壤中对镉的吸收积累特性和茶汤中镉元素的浸出率。结果表明,在pH值4.1的土壤中,通过根系吸收的镉元素从根系到主干,再到侧枝枝干和茶树叶片的转运过程中,各器官的镉含量依次递减,茶树嫩芽(叶)中镉的富集系数仅0.13~0.24;茶树种植在土壤镉含量低于3.0 mg/kg的土壤中,茶叶没有出现镉超标现象;镉元素在茶汤中的平均浸出率为9.87%,利用膳食暴露风险评估模型对茶叶和茶汤中的镉含量进行风险评估,表明供试茶叶样品中的镉不会对人体健康产生威胁。     

Habitat associations of the Threatened pugnose minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae) at the northern edge of the species range

Pugnose minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae) is a small, reclusive species that is widespread in North America, but is one of the rarest fishes in Canada, found in less than 12 known localities in southwestern Ontario. In contrast to most pugnose minnow populations across the global range, Canadian populations are primarily found in turbid systems, potentially indicating persistence in suboptimal conditions. We used data from a multi-gear species and habitat survey in the Canard River, Ontario, a system dominated by agricultural inputs and the best-known capture site of the species in Canada, to parameterise multi-gear occupancy models for understanding the relationship between pugnose minnow occupancy and microhabitat features, including the role of turbidity. Almost 300 pugnose minnow were captured, representing the largest single collection of the species in Canadian history. The best occupancy model indicated that the probability of pugnose minnow occupancy was highest in the deepest sites with the lowest water clarity (i.e. high turbidity); however, competing models suggested that occupancy was highest at sites with wild celery (Vallisneria americana) and higher water clarity, signifying that habitats with low turbidity may be utilised if sufficient physical cover exists. Together, our results suggest that Canadian pugnose minnow populations occupy and potentially favour turbid conditions, possibly to avoid visual predators in clearer habitats. It remains uncertain whether this abiotic association represents a long-term, viable, local adaptation or whether persistence of pugnose minnow in the Canard River is at risk unless significant water quality improvements can be made.     

绿豆生产者风险偏好影响因素实证分析

为保持绿豆生产的可持续发展,稳定绿豆生产者的风险态度,使其在生产中降低风险投入的同时增加生产效益,利用黑龙江省213户绿豆生产者的调研数据,运用有序Probit模型对黑龙江省绿豆生产者风险偏好的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:从事绿豆种植年限、绿豆市场价格、退休后继续从事绿豆种植、主粮(玉米、大豆、水稻)种植面积占比增加均对不同程度的风险态度有影响。为稳定生产者的风险态度,提出了提高生产者们对绿豆种植风险的意识水平,多渠道加强培训;鼓励达到退休年龄的生产者继续从事绿豆种植;建议国家农业相关部门提高对主要粮食作物的补贴或惠民政策标准及价格的调控等建议。